Dramatic mass loss in extreme high-elevation areas of a western Himalayan glacier: observations and modeling

Rapid climate change at high elevations has accelerated glacier retreat in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. However, due to the lack of long-term glaciological measurements, there are still uncertainties regarding when the mass loss began and what the magnitude of mass loss is at such high elevations. Based on in situ glaciological observations during the past 9 years and a temperature-index mass balance model, this study investigates recent mass loss of the Naimona'nyi Glacier in the western Himalayas and reconstructs a 41-year (1973/74-2013/14) equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and glacier-wide mass loss. The result indicates that even at 6000 m above sea level (a.s.l.), the annual mass loss reaches ~0.73 m water equivalent (w.e.) during the past 9 years. Concordant with the abrupt climate shift in the end of 1980s, the ELA has dramatically risen from ~5969 ± 73 m a.s.l. during 1973/74-1988/89 to ~6193 ± 75 m a.s.l. during 1989/90-2013/14, suggesting that future ice cores containing uninterrupted climate records could only be recovered at least above 6200 m a.s.l. in the Naimona'nyi region. The glacier-wide mass balance over the past 41 years is averaged to be approximately -0.40 ± 0.17 m w.e., exhibiting a significant increase in the decadal average from -0.01 ± 0.15 to -0.69 ± 0.21 m w.e.